Question

Please refer to the paper outline attached. Note that part 3 (analysis of Qatar’s changing Foreign Policy) should constitute ~ 70% of the paper.

For ease of writing, the outline shows which article to use from the attached articles I included. Thanks

Answer

Geopolitics and Qatar s Foreign Policy

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Contents

Introduction. 2

Transformation of Qatar’s Economy. 2

Geopolitical Location of Qatar. 3

Analysis of Qatar’s Changing Foreign Policy. 5

Qatar as a Mediator. 5

Critique of Qatar’s Foreign Policy. 7

Qatar’s Foreign Policy Objectives. 7

Emerging Regional Political Power. 11

Conclusion. 12

References. 12

Introduction

            Qatar’s foreign policy has been a subject of heated scholarly debate in recent times. This is because of several factors, including its rapidly growing economy, geopolitical position, and evolving foreign policy. For instance, in recent years, the country has endeavored to act as a mediator in various conflicts within the Middle East. However, the image that Qatar portrayed following mediation efforts in Sudan, Lebanon, and Yemen, as well as humanitarian assistance elsewhere, stands in contrast to the more direct approach the country has adopted in the Libyan and Syrian conflicts. For this reason, questions linger about the extent to which this changing foreign policy may be attributed to Qatar’s economic transformation. The aim of this paper is to provide an analysis of Qatar’s economic transformation, geopolitical location, and changing foreign policy. The paper examines the country’s efforts to emerge as a regional political power and the extent to which these efforts serve to facilitate the realization of its foreign policy objectives.

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Transformation of Qatar’s Economy

            Qatar has undergone massive economic transformation in recent years. This growth is attributed primarily to oil and gas exports (Dargin, 2007). The country has started using this economic strength to establish itself as a regional political power. However, Qatar’s location in a region that faces political instability has increased its vulnerability to geopolitical tensions. Nevertheless, it continues to maintain an economic and political competitive edge over its neighbors because of its low population and massive resources, which bring about guaranteed maneuverability on the regional and global political-economic fronts. Qatar’s position as a regional leader is demonstrated by the fact that it is the fastest-growing country in the fastest-growing part of the world. Moreover, it is among the few countries that are currently offering emerging market returns at risk levels of developed markets. Furthermore, it stands to benefit immensely from growing trade flows among emerging economies.

            The latest phase of Qatar’s rise as a global economic powerhouse may be traced to the oil price increases during the 2000s. Qatar used the wealth accumulated from oil liquefied natural gas (LNG) sales to purchase prime real estate in the developed world, primarily France and the United Kingdom. These factors have enabled the country to compete with major financial centers in the region such as Dubai. It has become an attractive global investment destination because it uses the English common law and has also embraced international standards in terms of its regulatory regime. For example, the country offers access to free zone and domestic markets even though it is not a free zone itself.

            The contribution of the 2008 financial crisis to the country’s economic transformation should also be highlighted. This crisis hit the neighboring financial centers such as Dubai harder than it did Qatar (Hawser, 2012). Consequently, many investors started directing their investments to Qatar instead of Dubai in the post-crisis era, leading to a rapid increase in the former country’s inward investment. Similarly, the choice of Qatar as the host for the 2022 FIFA World Cup has also given the country a competitive edge over other financial centers in the Middle East.

Geopolitical Location of Qatar

A major factor in Qatar’s present position as a regional and global powerhouse is its geopolitical location. The country is in a region that has continued to face political unrest in recent times. With its abundance of resources, small local population, and a high expatriate population, Qatar is less vulnerable to Islamic extremism that continues to affect the economies of neighboring countries such as Iraq, Iran, and Yemen. For instance, Qatar did not experienced the kind of social unrest that ravaged many Middle East countries during the first decade of the 21^st century. This situation makes the country to see itself as a regional leader and a worthy mediator in regional conflicts. 

Qatar’s changing geopolitical strategy may be attributed to its growing economic strength (Dargin, 2007). Despite being a small country, it has the resources needed to finance its regional and global political ambitions. The country has responded to the reduction in demand for LNG from the United States by securing long-term contracts for LNG exports to Asia. At the same time, rising tensions over the nuclear program in the neighboring Iran pose a risk to continuity in the gas export business. Any conflict flare-up in the Middle East would possibly have a negative impact Qatar’s gas export business along the Strait of Hormuz.

To protect its economic interests, Qatar feels obliged to use its financial power to play a greater role in various geopolitical events affecting the region by always making its stand known to the world (Hawser, 2012). For example, it recently decided to support opposition forces in Syria and Libya during the respective crises that affected the two countries in 2011 (Hawser, 2012). This move demonstrated the country’s growing desire for regional and global political influence and its readiness to shift its foreign policy from neutrality and mediation to interventionism. Unfortunately, this interventionist approach poses the risk of jeopardizing the very economic and political factors that facilitated the country’s rise to regional and global dominance.

Analysis of Qatar’s Changing Foreign Policy

Qatar as a Mediator

            During the last decade, Qatar has started positioning itself as a mediator in various conflicts affecting the Middle East. Some of the countries where Qatar made significant gains through mediation efforts include Sudan, Lebanon, and Yemen (Kamrava, 2011). This is a unique achievement for a small country like Qatar, whose native population is less than 350,000 and the total population is about 2 million people (Hawser, 2012). This phenomenon has drawn attention to the factors that have contributed to this success. The country’s vast resources have greatly contributed to this success. Moreover, the personal commitment of Qatar’s leaders has been as important as the country’s perceived neutrality in enabling it to help reduce tensions.

            In the conflicts affecting Sudan, Lebanon, and Yemen, Qatar has been able to push for a reduction in tensions as opposed to securing a lasting resolution of the conflicts. This shortcoming may be attributed to the country’s limited capabilities (Kamrava, 2011). Moreover, Qatar has not yet reached a point where it can put in place the necessary administrative structures and resource mobilization processes across the Middle East to enable it to project its power before, during, and after diplomatic mediation processes.

The Middle East is world-renowned for its intra-sectarian conflicts and cross-border conflicts. This is the context within which Qatar’s mediation efforts in the region should be understood. In the Sudan conflict, which started in 2008 in the Darfur region, fighting between disparate groups lead to many deaths, destruction of property, and the fleeing of refugees into neighboring countries. Qatari negotiators managed to secure the goodwill of the people of Darfur by gathering as much on-the-ground information as possible. They also made a calculated move to seek the support of various international agencies for their mediation efforts. This culminated into the commencement of negotiations in Qatar and the signing of various memoranda of understanding between the warring rebel groups in Darfur.

            In the political crisis that started in Lebanon in November 2007, Qatar’s efforts earned the country a major diplomatic coup because it was able to not only bring Hezbollah and the March 14 Movement on the negotiating table but also to make them agree on who would be picked as the next president for the country. Despite this success, the mediation efforts drew attention to Qatar’s shortcomings in terms of shaping the behavior of disputants on the ground. For example, it was evident that Iran and Syria had tremendous influence on Hezbollah at the local level. The situation in Yemen was radically different. The Huthi rebellion started in 2004 but Qatar became involved in mediation in May 2007. Qatar’s mediation efforts brought nothing more than short-lived optimism despite the signing of the Doha Agreement and the country’s pledge for reconstruction aid worth $300-$500 million (Kamrava, 2011).

            During these three mediation efforts, Qatar’s chief negotiators demonstrated personal involvement, negotiation skills, and independence. The country made an important functional contribution but lacked institutional capacity to achieve optimal gains. It also lacked the capability to infuse massive investments to influence the behavior of disputants long after the finalization of round-table negotiations. According to Kamrava (2011), Qatar’s successes are inherent in its mediation efforts rather than in conflict resolution. Failure in the realm of conflict resolution arose because of the country’s limited opportunities and resources which made it difficult for it to follow through with sustained level of political commitment. Moreover, the country lacked presence at the local level where actual enforcement of agreements would take place. To enforce agreements effectively, Qatar would require sustained projection of power locally through diverse strategies aimed at shaping the actions of all disputants.

Critique of Qatar’s Foreign Policy

            An in-depth review of Qatar’s foreign policy shows that it seeks to strike a delicate balance between the country’s pursuit of internal stability and its claim to regional and international political influence (Khatib, 2013). This is a difficult challenge that ends up creating an impression of incoherence on the part of the country’s foreign policy. On the one hand, there are serious weaknesses in Qatar’s internal governance structure. On the other hand, the country is enthusiastically seeking to project its political strengths to the world through mediation efforts and hearty support for humanitarian assistance programs.

            Today, Qatar’s foreign policy, it seems, is based on a two-pronged approach involving mediation and direct action. Mediation is demonstrated by its intervention to resolve political crises affecting Sudan, Yemen, and Lebanon while direct action is demonstrated by the country’s role in the Libyan and Syrian crises. This approach shows lack of coherence and even contradiction of sorts in Qatar’s foreign policy. For instance, during the Arab Spring, which led to the Libyan and Syrian crises, the image that Qatar portrayed did not match its actions. Its support for opposition groups in both countries threatened its position as a neutral mediator in political conflicts affecting the Middle East. Moreover, the stance may have increased the country’s vulnerability to the effects of international sources of instability.

Qatar’s Foreign Policy Objectives

            A dominant element of Qatari foreign policy is the tendency to change allegiance frequently with a view to maintain autonomy (Roberts, 2012). This trend may be traced to the history of the country, which describes the extreme levels of hostility that the Qatari Peninsula faced from various Arab tribes. To survive in this kind of environment, Qatari Sheiks had to keep withdrawing their support from one tribe and conferring it to another in efforts to maintain the state’s relevance and autonomy. Aspects of this traditional political philosophy are inherent in the contemporary foreign policy objectives of Qatar.

            For a long time, Qatar has remained an underdeveloped state surrounded by more powerful neighbors. To secure its security, the state has had to seek alliances with its more powerful neighbors. The seriousness of this situation is reflected in the fact that most of the issues that define the country’s foreign policy are closely related to security interests. This also explains why Qatar at one time depended heavily on the assistance of Britain in conducting its foreign policy. After Qatar refused to become a part of the United Arab Emirates, it turned to Saudi Arabia for assistance primarily on security issues. Qatar’s affiliation with Saudi Arabia explains why its foreign policy decisions closely resembled those of other Middle East countries.

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            During the early 1990s, Qatar changed tact to adopt unconventional foreign policy decisions. A radical change of foreign policy came with the bloodless coup that brought Emir Hamad Bin Khalifah to power. Since then, the country’s foreign policy started reflecting an attempt at curving out a niche in order to attract foreign direct investment. It seemed rather unusual for Qatar to improve relations with Iran and Israel. These improved relations brought about numerous economic benefits, including access to Tehran’s piped water and the sale of Qatari oil to Israel. The changing foreign policy was also reflected in the agreements the country entered into with United States in 1992, which culminated in the establishment of a large American military base in Qatar.

            During this era of foreign policy change, deteriorating relations with Saudi Arabia provided impetus for Qatar’s efforts to improve relations with other countries internationally. Yet the country’s quest for improved international relations existed even during the 1970s when Saudi Arabia was the de facto protector of Qatar. Again, this reflects Qatar’s unease about the geopolitical environment in which it is situated as well as the country’s ever-growing desire to use diverse foreign policy options to promote its security interests. This unease may have been compounded when Saudi Arabia’s vulnerabilities were exposed during the Operation Desert Storm; it became evident that Saudi Arabia was incapable of protecting itself. Thus, Qatar felt that it could not entrust its security needs to such a vulnerable country.

            Today’s foreign policy in Doha is a continuation of the unconventional trend that started during the 1990s (Cooper & Momani, 2011). The country is increasingly diversifying the economy in an effort to brand itself as a popular business destination, thus locking it in competition with the UAE. Qatar has been attempting to curve out a niche in order to attract foreign direct investment and compete complete effectively with its Middle East neighbors (Peterson, 2006).

            A major enabler of the new foreign policy is financial strength. Using its financial strength, Qatar has endeavored to create the image of a neutral mediator in regional conflicts, thereby positioning itself as an international actor with a difference (Roberts, 2012). To illustrate these efforts, one should look at mediation activities and humanitarian assistance Qatar has continued to engage in recently. Similarly, various cultural and economic initiatives that Qatar continues to support reflects its changing image. One example is the use of Al-Jazeera to showcase a cultural revolution in the Middle East, and another one is the use of cultural festivals and sporting events to portray the country’s image in positive light within the international arena (Roberts, 2012).

            Diversification into liquefied natural gas (LNG) may also be viewed as a shrewd foreign policy move that was aimed at making Qatar indispensable in international relations. Today, the country supplies LNG to key markets, including the UK, India, China, and Japan. These trade links create a situation where it is in the national interest of these importing countries for peace and stability to prevail in Qatar. The ends that this strategy seeks to achieve are similar to those being sought through the principle of reciprocity, whereby the country expects the states it has assisted with humanitarian aid to reciprocate in the event that it faces a similar natural disaster or political crisis. Other than security concerns, Qatar faces the problem of food insecurity, and this may explain its commitment to peace in Sudan, a large country that serves as an important breadbasket in Africa.

            Finally, Qatar’s most recent foreign policy decisions reflect the end of the era of neutrality. In 2011, Qatar recognized the legitimacy of rebels in Libya and even went ahead to offer them massive support. It trained rebels, supplied them with fuel and ammunition, and helped them trade in oil in the international market. The same kind of assistance was provided to Syrian rebels. By taking a partial position in the Libyan and Syrian conflicts, Qatar jeopardized its hard-earned status of an impartial mediator. This may be considered a foreign policy mistake because it diminishes the country’s role as a mediator by portraying it as merely one of the numerous protagonists that have become an integral part of the security problem in the Middle East. In this shift in foreign policy, Qatar is simply conforming to its historical practice of supporting perceived winners (Roberts, 2012). One may argue that the groups that Qatar supported in Egypt, Tunisia, Libya, and Syria were simply poised for political victory, thereby providing justification for the country’s foreign policy position. Nevertheless, it is difficult to stipulate the benefits that Qatar derived through its actions in Syria and Libya. This lack of clarity has led to claims that Qatar’s foreign policy lacks coherence in terms of its contribution to overall political strategy in the country (Khatib, 2013).

Emerging Regional Political Power

When Qatar charted its own path in foreign policy during the 1990s, it commenced on a journey towards becoming the regional political power that it has become today. The use of mediation, economics, diplomacy, education, culture, and humanitarian assistance to portray the country as a friendly neighbor has enabled it to establish strategic alliances at both regional and international levels. These efforts have played a significant role in enabling Qatar to contribute immensely to regional power balances and radical changes in the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East. This kind of influence makes Qatar an emerging regional political power.

To understand this situation, one needs to look at the role that Qatar is expected to play in the unfolding situations in Egypt, Yemen, and parts of Iraq and Syria, where the Islamic State is gradually taking shape. Each of these developments have an impact on Doha’s foreign policy, and will undoubtedly be a key determinant of the course that Qatar’s foreign policy will take in the future. For instance, Qatar’s doctrine of consolidating peace and stability will be put to test at a time when serious concerns have been raised regarding the country’s stature as an impartial mediator in political crises affecting the Middle East.

On the other hand, the switch from neutrality to influence is an indication that Qatar has become an emerging power. The confidence with which the country abandoned its role as a neutral mediator without fear of a political fallout demonstrates its growing influence in the region (Boyce, 2013). It shows that Qatar is ready to use its position of influence to take sides in conflicts and influence the formation of new governments. The ability to bring about such kind of influence augurs well for Qatar’s foreign policy objective of seeking favorable outcomes from diplomatic engagements with its Middle Eastern neighbors. According to Abdullah (2014), Qatar exploited the power vacuum that occurred between 2011 and 2013 to position itself as a leader particularly in the Arab League. At a time when traditional Arab powers struggled to deal with internal problems, Qatar maintained its stature as a stable, peaceful country that was firmly focused on expanding the sphere of its regional and international influence.

Conclusion

Qatar has achieved numerous milestones in terms of foreign policy since the early 1970s. It has managed to build its economy, chart an independent foreign policy path, and cement its stature as an emerging regional political power. Qatar no longer depends on Riyadh for its foreign policy decisions. This is an important milestone that is attributed to the unconventional foreign policy path that it took during the early 1990s. What began as an attempt to build the country’s reputation as an important mediator has been transformed into an aggressive display of assertiveness particularly during political crises affecting the Middle East. This explains the shift from neutrality to political influence in regards to Qatar’s foreign policy. As political crises continue to hinder the growth of traditional Arab powers, one should expect Qatar to exploit the resulting power vacuum by mobilizing its immense financial resources to redirect its foreign policy objectives towards cementing its position as a new regional political power.

References

Abdullah, J. (2014). Qatari Foreign Policy: Fine Tuning or Redirection? Doha: Al Jazeera Centre for Studies.

Boyce, G. (2013). Qatar’s Foreign Policy. Asian Affairs, 44(3), 365-377.

Cooper, A. & Momani, B. (2011). Qatar and Expanded Contours of Small State Diplomacy. The International Spectator: Italian Journal of International Affairs, 46(3), 113-128.

Dargin, J. (2007). Qatar’s Natural Gas: The Foreign-Policy Driver. Middle East Policy, 14(3) 136–142.

Hawser, A. (2012). Report: Qatar Faces Geopolitical Risk. Global Finance Magazine, December 6, 2012: Online.

Kamrava, M. (2011). Mediation and Qatari Foreign Policy. Middle East Journal, 65(4), 539-556.

Khatib, L. (2013). Qatar’s foreign policy: The limits of pragmatism. International Affairs, 89(2), 417-431.

Peterson, J. (2006). Qatar and the World: Branding for a Micro-State. Middle East Journal, 60(4), 732-748.

Roberts, D. (2012). Understanding Qatar’s Foreign Policy Objectives. Mediterranean Politics, 17(2), 233-239.